The Horseplayer Magazine, Louisiana Downs... Kentucky Derby 132

I usually use this space to talk and/or rant about a specific topic but today I just want to highlight a few things happening in the horse racing/tournament world. I'm sure you'll find at least one of the subjects interesting. We'll take a look at some exciting news coming from The HorsePlayer Magazine, a tip sheet for Louisiana Downs, and a thing or two to say about the "Greatest Two Minutes in Sports." I hope you find this information useful and please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions. Here goes...

The Horseplayer Magazine redesigns HorsePlayerdaily.com; Adds new exclusive content
May 1st marked the launch of the new HorsePlayerdaily.com website. You'll still be able to find some of the regular features you've grown to appreciate such as the NTRA Race of the Month and the Carryover Watch/Guaranteed Pool and Track Takeout lists, but they've added some very exciting new content.

One of the new features is "Your Blogs" where anyone that chooses to can setup their own blog linked right from the HorePlayerdaily.com website and powered by 21publish.com. In an effort to get things off to a fast start they've even offered up a contest called "Blog Your Way to a Job" where the winner will get a paid freelance contract valued between $1,800 and $3,000 for the six issues of the magazine to be published in 2007.

For me, the most exciting new feature is The Players' Lounge which can be found under the link titled "Tourney News." Here you're going to find a couple of firsts. One is the first ever Tournament Money Leaderboard (think golf money list) and the second is the first ever Tournament Player Rankings (think college basketball/football polls).

The money list will consist of players that have earned cash in any major contests from February 1, 2006 right on through the end of the year Championships, both the DRF/NTRA NHC and the Horseplayer World Series. The player poll will rank the Top 20 tournament players in the country and will also include an "others receiving votes" list. The rankings are determined by a "blue ribbon" panel made up of 10 tournament players (myself being one) from all around the country. Each voter will rank their Top 10 players one through 10. Points are given on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scale. The inaugural poll has NHC VII Champ Ron Rippey ranked #1 with 71 points on the strength of six first place votes. If you're a tournament player I don't think it can get any better than this, and I think this is just the beginning of something great!

In addition to all of the above in The Players' Lounge you're also going to find a full tourney schedule (includes NHC and HPWS contests), recaps of past contests, and coming soon they will have previews for upcoming contests. Last but not least, you'll also find a monthly topic/question that each panelist will talk about/answer. This is/will be a definite can't miss destination for any tournament handicapper.

$1,000 Play of the Day Cajun style
I'm very excited to announce that I will be providing a daily tip sheet for the 2006 Meet at Louisiana Downs beginning with opening day on May 5th. The tip sheet will feature a "$1,000 Play of the Day" where the challenge is to turn $100 into $1,000. Not an easy feat by any stretch of the imagination. I guess going in the goal will be to hit one out of 10 to break even and see how it goes from there. In addition, there will be four to five other races will analysis, and the remaining races will just have the top three picks listed. You can pick up the tip sheet for free at the track or on the Louisiana Downs website at ladowns.com. I'm very excited about the opportunity and I hope you decide to follow along.

Kentucky Derby 132, who ya got?
It's pretty easy and I'm not going to second guess myself. I think the best horse in the field is Sweetnorthernsaint. I loved him going into the Hawthorne Derby and, as you may have seen, he didn't disappoint, and hasn't done anything wrong since to make me jump off. He's fast early and faster late. A lethal combination. My key to riches will be Deputy Glitters. The Wood was a nutty race with Keyed Entry running off and getting the pace all out of whack. Other horses I like to be in the mix are Brother Derek, Barbaro, Bob and John, and the aforementioned Keyed Entry. I do give Point Determined and Cause to Believe a chance to clunk up for minor awards.

I'm not a big fan of Lawyer Ron at all. He's simply too slow. His one fast race was against Mark of Success and Hyte Regency. Exactly. That figure, I believe, is dead wrong. If he wins I'm okay with losing. Sinister Minister. Whatever. He killed me in the Pick 4 last out and I'll give him the chance to do the same Derby Day.

Good luck to all and just know that if it comes in Sweetnorthernsaint over Deputy Glitters I'll no longer have a day job!

Peace out.

Related Links:
The HorsePlayer Magazine
Harrah's Louisiana Downs
Kentucky Derby 132
DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship
Horseplayer World Series

Free-for-alls... They're for the birds!

Where do I begin? I guess I'll start by explaining what my definition of “free-for-alls” is. Free-for-alls are Handicapping Contests that do not have any "boundaries". They're the ones that allow you to make your selections from any signal being shown at the venue you are participating at. Examples of these contests are the Orleans events, including the Horseplayer World Series, and the Churchill Downs (this past March) and Keeneland Contests.

Call me what you will, but I just can't imagine watching or playing football without having sidelines. Can you? What a mess that would be. How about basketball without sidelines? That would essentially reduce the game to something we're all familiar with. An exhibition between the Harlem Globetrotters and the Washington Generals. Though entertaining at times it means nothing.

From what I understand horseplayers are apparently requesting contests to use this type of format. I'm not sure why? I haven't actually found someone that prefers it, but I have no doubt they're out there somewhere. If you know, please help me understand.

Probably the biggest knock against Handicapping Contests is the element of luck that is involved. First of all, let me say that although I do believe luck is part of the game, you have to be good enough to put yourself in the position to get lucky. If you’re down and are in need of at least a 12-1 shot and there are only two in the race you know you have to take one. So, flip a coin or do whatever you have to do to come up with one you "need." Maybe you're actually fortunate enough to have an opinion and like one of the bombs. Great! At the end of the day it doesn't matter if you would never bet a single dollar of a stranger's money, let alone your own money, on the horse. You gotta do what you gotta do and if the horse wins, congratulations! Nice work. You may have just gotten lucky. The key is you put yourself in the position to get lucky, and simply put, you understand the game. See my previous post called "Scoreboard... Scoreboard!" for more on that.

Personally I would prefer to compete against 10,000 people in an all mandatory event versus a free-for-all against 100 people. Again, call me what you will, but it is absolutely impossible to handicap or even look at over 150 races for a single day. I'm not just showing up and trying to find something the day of either. I'm working for at least two days prior or as soon as past performances are available. There needs to be some kind of boundaries set.

Don't get it twisted. I do enjoy playing in contests that are all optional and/or contests that split mandatory and optional races. The difference is these contests I speak of have boundaries (i.e. Arlington Park, Royal River Racing). They're limited to somewhere in the neighborhood of four tracks. I believe the maximum tracks that should be allowed are five. Even at 10 races per track we're looking at 50 races. Though still difficult, it is a much more manageable amount of races to handicap/look over. At this point everyone in the room at least has the opportunity. Nothing like looking at the one clown in the room that picked a 35-1 shot drawing away in the stretch at a track you didn't even know was open let alone a race you didn't even look at. I'm no John Stossel, but give me a break!

In addition, the atmosphere of these free-for-alls leaves much to be desired. Get 200 of your closest friends together competing on the same field, a.k.a. a contest with boundaries, and there's nothing like it! It's our, a regular Joe's/Jane's, chance to win it in the bottom of the ninth and there are actually others involved. What more can you ask for? Bring it on!

I'll go head-to-head with anyone willing. Let's just at least be in the same county. Unfortunately (or fortunately), you won't be seeing me at Keeneland this year. I've attended just about every contest they've had over the last four or five years and I've even qualified there twice. It's just gotten out of control, and unless they choose to change the rules I'm out. All you can really ask yourself is, "are you giving yourself the best chance to succeed?" For me, as far as free-for-alls go I'm definitely not. They may be your thing, and that's okay. They're just not mine. So, I'll choose to invest elsewhere.

Related Links:
DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship
Horseplayer World Series

Scoreboard... Scoreboard!

Think back to when you were 12 years old (or even in high school). You were playing ball with your closest buddies. You were winning the game. Your biggest rival was talking smack. All you had to say was one word, "scoreboard." You could say it softly or you could scream at the top of your lungs. It didn't matter because it meant the same thing either way. No matter what your rival said you had the biggest burn of all.

One thing that needs to be very clear is a handicapping contest is not the same as wagering on the races. You should never compare a contest player with someone who bets on the races. That's like comparing a card player with a craps player. They are playing two totally different games and it simply isn't fair.

One of the most important things a contest player can do is understand the entire picture. You can't just go in and select the best horse in every race because if you do you’re chances of winning are slim to none. Why? Well, that’s simple, you don’t understand the entire picture. You need to take into account every single aspect of the tournament and the score needs to be incorporated into your overall strategy. If you use it and others don’t than you have a huge edge over them. A scoreboard is one of the most important parts of the game! Without it you’ve just completely eliminated one of elements necessary to make sure the best contest player wins.

I've yet to hear one solid reason why a scoreboard shouldn't be used. Let's take a look at one example. The East Coast Player versus the West Coast Player. The argument is if a scoreboard is used the player making selections on east coast races is at a disadvantage to the player making selections on west coast races because the West Coast Player knows what number he/she needs to shoot for to win the tournament. The thing that is wrong with this argument is you're segmenting the rules of the contest i.e. you don’t understand the entire picture. You need to go into every contest with a game plan. If you're entering a contest that includes both east coast and west coast races than you need to take that into account while constructing your game plan. You can choose to play all east coast races because you have that right. If you understand the entire picture then you know you’ve given the West Coast Player a target and there’s nothing you can do about it. That’s probably not the best plan for this type of contest, but you are free to do what you want based on the rules. You definitely have nothing to complain about and I really can't feel sorry for you. If you have a problem with it than you’re just a whiner and/or you don’t understand the entire picture. You both played by the same rules so you about all you have is another "tough beat" story. Personally, I'd consider an alternative plan!

Based on the above example one thing I would like to see is in a contest that uses optional races the host needs to not only include a player’s score but also the number of plays they’ve used (or the number of plays they have remaining). If you're going to do it please do it right. All of this information can and should be used to determine exactly what you are going to do. This is yet another element that should be incorporated into your strategy, and if it’s available and you choose not to use it to your advantage than you don’t understand the entire picture. For example, you're late into the biggest tournament of the year, it's Win/Place, and you're down $18.00. The leader has one play left and you have three. What do you do? Well, you have a multitude of options. If you really like a 3-1 shot, and that’s not below you’re minimum odds, you should probably not be shy and take it. If you lose you still have two bullets left to make a mends. On the other hand, if you have one play remaining and the leader is finished, you know that no matter what you need to take a horse that is at least 6-1 (maybe 5-1, but that could be a bit murky) in order to guarantee a chance at victory.

Having said that if the last race of the contest has a five horse field (that would obviously be a west coast race) and the odds are 4-5, 2-1, 5-2, 4-1 and 35-1, you have to take the 35-1 bomb. No question! That's the only chance you have at winning. Now maybe your game plan reads you want to play for second place. In that case, you may want to look at some of the other options. In that example we're talking about the biggest tournament of the year. Change that example to a feeder contest where you need to finish in the Top 3 to qualify for that big tourney. Now you have another element to consider and you must consider it if you understand the entire picture. Do you want to try and guarantee yourself a Top 3 finish or do you want to go for the killshot and hope nobody passes you by? I've been there before. Two different times stand out the most. Once I was in fourth by 20 cents (needed to finish Top 4) and once I was in first by a couple dollars (needed to finish Top 5). Both times I went for the money and the win. The final standings were different each time but the ultimate results were the same. My horses lost but my 20 cent lead held up in one and I fell from first to third in the other. Fortunately, in both instances, I was still able qualify for the bigger tournament. Either way, win lose or draw I'm going for the win. That's just the way I roll and I wouldn't want it any other way. I never play scared.

In closing, obviously I feel scoreboards are a very important element of contests and they should be used at all times, and if you have an opinion please make sure that you understand the entire picture.

Related Links:
Handicapping Contest Handbook (Revised and Updated Edition)
By Noel Michaels