THE PREAKNESS - Grade 1
Pimlico Race 12 - 6:18 ET
Let's get right down to it. I'm going to provide my thoughts on each horse in the field by order of preference. I'll also include their morning line odds (ML) along with, what I think is, their fair value (FV).
Win Contenders
#8 Super Saver (5/2 ML; 8/5 FV) - I liked everything about him in the Derby except for his odds so I'm not jumping off now. He's clearly the one to beat. As the week has progressed it's become more and more apparent that this race is Super Saver's to lose. He reportedly worked three furlongs on May 10th breezing in 36 3/5. I say "reportedly" because I watched the footage (you can see it here) and it didn't look like he was doing anything more than trotting. Your winner.
#7 Lookin At Lucky (3/1; 5/2) - He has the best chance to spoil the Kentucky Derby winner's party. Will he find trouble again? There was an interesting conversation on At the Races with Steve Byk on Wednesday (end of hour two) with Randy Moss. They were talking about how some horses just tend to find trouble and Lookin At Lucky just may be that horse. Interestingly enough, despite Moss championing that discussion, his top pick is Lookin At Lucky. I would feel a little more comfortable if Gomez stayed aboard but Garcia is more than capable. Just not sure how he'll react on the biggest stage he's encountered. When I think about Lookin At Lucky I always think of his run in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park. Tough not to think he can nip Super Saver at the wire.
Exotics Contenders
#2 Schoolyard Dreams (15/1; 10/1) - I'm listing this guy officially as an exotics contender, but if neither of the top two win this is the only horse I see that can. I don't know what happened in the Wood Memorial (G1), but I hear he was sick. His two previous races at Tampa Bay Downs make him a very strong win contender here. He's been working lights out, and shouldn't have any problem with the distance being by Stephen Got Even. He'll be the reason I win or don't win today. I'm tempted to flip-flop him and 'Lucky, but I keep thinking Wood vs. Rebel.
#9 Caracortado (10/1; 15/1) - I don't really know what to think of him. I guess it's fair to say he's worked well and has every chance to hit the board so he deserves to be an exotics contender. He's won on dirt but it was at four furlongs, against $40,000 maiden claimers, and at Fairplex.
Middle of the Road Contenders
#10 Paddy O'Prado (9/2; 15/1) - He made a very nice run in the Derby. I hear many folks talk about the trouble he got into in early stretch, but I just don't see it. I think today is the day he gets exposed as a poly/turf horse. I'm just not a fan. If he does run well today I will have to change my mind on him because he hasn't really done much wrong. You would then be able to say he's a poly/turf/dirt horse which would be very impressive.
#4 Northern Giant (30/1; 30/1) - I liked him at 53/1 in the Grade 2 Risen Star where he finished third. I just wish he would have shown some life in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
Toss 'Em Contenders
#1 Aikenite (20/1; 30/1) - I liked his middle move in the Derby Trial (G3) but he flattened out pretty good late in the stretch. I would have liked to see him run on. He needs to stick to one-turn for now at least.
#12 Dublin (10/1; 35/1) - My opinion has not changed since the Derby. If the Triple Crown doesn't finish him I think he can be a monster miler.
#9 Pleasant Prince (20/1; 35/1) - They've been chasing since the second place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. The road ends here.
#5 Yawanna Twist (30/1; 40/1) - Distance limitations.
#6 Jackson Bend (12/1; 50/1) - I find it laughable that some are actually picking this guy to win. I'd rather lose.
#11 First Dude (20/1; 50/1) - No chance. I see Fly Down beat him twice and he's already the talk of the Belmont Stakes (G1). I just don't see it happening for this guy.
Here are my selections using the tiered approach:
8-7 / 2-9 / 10-4
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Saturday, May 01, 2010
Kentucky Derby 136... who ya got?
The 136th Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY
Churchill Downs
May 1, 2010
Race 11 - 6:24 ET
This year's Derby trail has certainly been interesting. Up until a week or two ago it was smooth sailing. There were very few injuries and not too much excitement to go around other than Eskendreya who towered over his peers. Then the wheels fell off. Todd Pletcher declared the Derby favorite from the race, Rule was taken out of consideration, and although it didn't happen immediately, Interactif was rumored to not be entering as well. From there you had Endorsement get injured on the morning of the draw after his workout, of which, Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form later said was the "wow" work of the lead up to the race. Then you had the two favorites from California draw what are probably the worst post positions available in the #1 and #20.
Ever since that point it's been all about the weather. Initial reports were Louisville was to get pounded with five inches of rain. Seriously? I mean what a way to ruin "Christmas!" Fortunately, and per usual, that has been revised and for the better. The latest I heard was heavy rain from 10am-2pm followed by more moderate showers. We can only hope.
On to the race and the horses going postward. With 20 set to go there is a lot to talk about so I'm going to break them down in the following groups: Win Contenders, Exotics Contenders, "Blah???" Contenders, and Toss 'Em Contenders.
Win Contenders
#16 Awesome Act - Initially I was leaning toward Super Saver as my top pick though I never fully committed. After seeing he was 7/1 in the early betting I definitely had to look elsewhere. I kind of settled in on Mission Impazible, but upon further review my official pick for the 136th Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY is Awesome Act. Put it on the board. His run in the Gotham (G3) was electrifying and although it does make me nervous that it happened on the Aqueduct Inner I'm going to let myself believe what I saw with my eyes. I'm giving him the excuse of losing a shoe in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial and saying he is ready to roll today.
#14 Mission Impazible - As I mentioned I briefly settled on Mission Impazible as my top choice and although that didn't stick he does still remain a Win Contender for me. He was up against it in the Southwest (G3) battling Conveyance and Dublin going just one mile. Conveyance is undefeated going one mile or less and I think Dublin could turn out to be one of the best milers on the planet assuming the Derby doesn't end him. Mission Impazible came back with a very nice effort in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and he has the right running style.
#4 Super Saver - No, I don't like Super Saver because of Calvin Borel, although it doesn't hurt. He does have the win over the Churchill surface. I liked how he fought back in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) when I thought he was finished, and unlike Dublin, I don't think his run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) was that bad. My concern with him is if he'll relax and rate behind all of the speed or if he'll want to try and get right into that mix and cook himself. At 7/1 I couldn't make him my "number one."
Exotics Contenders
#1 Lookin At Lucky - If it wasn't for the post position Lookin At Lucky would probably be my top pick. I think he's a much better horse on dirt than the "polycrap" and he's probably the most talented of this group. I just can't see him completely overcoming the one hole. I will be surprised if he's not around at the finish though. His win in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park is only rivaled by Awesome Act's Gotham.
#11 Devil May Care - I don't even really want to take the filly but I don't really have that many options. I don't like how she lugged in after passing her rival in the stretch in her last but you still have to respect that run. There are a lot of other horses in this race I'm tossing before I toss her.
#6 Stately Victor - I know. Honestly I didn't even know this horse until he upset the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland. A lot has been made of his "polycrap" win and how he hasn't run well on the dirt. Well, I really don't think his 3yo debut on the dirt at Gulfstream Park was that bad. Plus he's by Ghostzapper and I love me some Ghostzapper, and it's not like I'm saying he's going to win the thing. Again, like Devil May Care, I'm tossing a lot of others before I'm tossing this one.
"Blah?" Contenders
The following are horses I don't want to completely toss out but I don't really like either. They are somewhere in "blah-blah" land.
#2 Ice Box - Not sure I believe the Florida Derby (G1). The pace should set it up for him though.
#10 Paddy O'Prado - Apparently he's been working great but that doesn't change the fact that he's a "polycrap"/turf horse.
#15 Discreetly Mine - Hasn't proven he can pass anyone. Very close to the toss 'em list.
Toss 'Em Contenders
The following are horses I do not like at all.
#3 Noble's Promise - He's not getting 1 1/4M being by Cuvee.
#5 Line of David - Will set the pace and stop.
#7 American Lion - I'm willing to let this one burn me. He's not getting a half in :49 and change today.
#8 Dean's Kitten - Should be 200/1.
#9 Make Music for Me - See Dean's Kitten.
#12 Conveyance - See Line of David.
#13 Jackson Bend - Much respect running 2nd to Eskendreya twice, but he's not getting the distance today.
#17 Dublin - Ran terrible at CD twice previously. Hated his Arkansas Derby (G1). No excuse as to why he couldn't pass Line of David.
#18 Backtalk - Should be 300/1.
#19 Homeboykris - Tricky Dick Dutrow always makes me nervous, but this is just ridiculous.
#20 Sidney's Candy - California "polycrap" horses have seemingly been dominating this year. They aren't going to be crawling today, the 20 post hurts - this isn't Big Brown, and I simply just do not see it happening for this guy. Toss 'em!
Here are my selections using the tiered approach:
16-14-4 / 1 / 11-6
Churchill Downs
May 1, 2010
Race 11 - 6:24 ET
This year's Derby trail has certainly been interesting. Up until a week or two ago it was smooth sailing. There were very few injuries and not too much excitement to go around other than Eskendreya who towered over his peers. Then the wheels fell off. Todd Pletcher declared the Derby favorite from the race, Rule was taken out of consideration, and although it didn't happen immediately, Interactif was rumored to not be entering as well. From there you had Endorsement get injured on the morning of the draw after his workout, of which, Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form later said was the "wow" work of the lead up to the race. Then you had the two favorites from California draw what are probably the worst post positions available in the #1 and #20.
Ever since that point it's been all about the weather. Initial reports were Louisville was to get pounded with five inches of rain. Seriously? I mean what a way to ruin "Christmas!" Fortunately, and per usual, that has been revised and for the better. The latest I heard was heavy rain from 10am-2pm followed by more moderate showers. We can only hope.
On to the race and the horses going postward. With 20 set to go there is a lot to talk about so I'm going to break them down in the following groups: Win Contenders, Exotics Contenders, "Blah???" Contenders, and Toss 'Em Contenders.
Win Contenders
#16 Awesome Act - Initially I was leaning toward Super Saver as my top pick though I never fully committed. After seeing he was 7/1 in the early betting I definitely had to look elsewhere. I kind of settled in on Mission Impazible, but upon further review my official pick for the 136th Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY is Awesome Act. Put it on the board. His run in the Gotham (G3) was electrifying and although it does make me nervous that it happened on the Aqueduct Inner I'm going to let myself believe what I saw with my eyes. I'm giving him the excuse of losing a shoe in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial and saying he is ready to roll today.
#14 Mission Impazible - As I mentioned I briefly settled on Mission Impazible as my top choice and although that didn't stick he does still remain a Win Contender for me. He was up against it in the Southwest (G3) battling Conveyance and Dublin going just one mile. Conveyance is undefeated going one mile or less and I think Dublin could turn out to be one of the best milers on the planet assuming the Derby doesn't end him. Mission Impazible came back with a very nice effort in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and he has the right running style.
#4 Super Saver - No, I don't like Super Saver because of Calvin Borel, although it doesn't hurt. He does have the win over the Churchill surface. I liked how he fought back in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) when I thought he was finished, and unlike Dublin, I don't think his run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) was that bad. My concern with him is if he'll relax and rate behind all of the speed or if he'll want to try and get right into that mix and cook himself. At 7/1 I couldn't make him my "number one."
Exotics Contenders
#1 Lookin At Lucky - If it wasn't for the post position Lookin At Lucky would probably be my top pick. I think he's a much better horse on dirt than the "polycrap" and he's probably the most talented of this group. I just can't see him completely overcoming the one hole. I will be surprised if he's not around at the finish though. His win in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park is only rivaled by Awesome Act's Gotham.
#11 Devil May Care - I don't even really want to take the filly but I don't really have that many options. I don't like how she lugged in after passing her rival in the stretch in her last but you still have to respect that run. There are a lot of other horses in this race I'm tossing before I toss her.
#6 Stately Victor - I know. Honestly I didn't even know this horse until he upset the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland. A lot has been made of his "polycrap" win and how he hasn't run well on the dirt. Well, I really don't think his 3yo debut on the dirt at Gulfstream Park was that bad. Plus he's by Ghostzapper and I love me some Ghostzapper, and it's not like I'm saying he's going to win the thing. Again, like Devil May Care, I'm tossing a lot of others before I'm tossing this one.
"Blah?" Contenders
The following are horses I don't want to completely toss out but I don't really like either. They are somewhere in "blah-blah" land.
#2 Ice Box - Not sure I believe the Florida Derby (G1). The pace should set it up for him though.
#10 Paddy O'Prado - Apparently he's been working great but that doesn't change the fact that he's a "polycrap"/turf horse.
#15 Discreetly Mine - Hasn't proven he can pass anyone. Very close to the toss 'em list.
Toss 'Em Contenders
The following are horses I do not like at all.
#3 Noble's Promise - He's not getting 1 1/4M being by Cuvee.
#5 Line of David - Will set the pace and stop.
#7 American Lion - I'm willing to let this one burn me. He's not getting a half in :49 and change today.
#8 Dean's Kitten - Should be 200/1.
#9 Make Music for Me - See Dean's Kitten.
#12 Conveyance - See Line of David.
#13 Jackson Bend - Much respect running 2nd to Eskendreya twice, but he's not getting the distance today.
#17 Dublin - Ran terrible at CD twice previously. Hated his Arkansas Derby (G1). No excuse as to why he couldn't pass Line of David.
#18 Backtalk - Should be 300/1.
#19 Homeboykris - Tricky Dick Dutrow always makes me nervous, but this is just ridiculous.
#20 Sidney's Candy - California "polycrap" horses have seemingly been dominating this year. They aren't going to be crawling today, the 20 post hurts - this isn't Big Brown, and I simply just do not see it happening for this guy. Toss 'em!
Here are my selections using the tiered approach:
16-14-4 / 1 / 11-6
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