Kentucky Derby Revisited
- #20 Sidney's Candy - California "polycrap" horses have seemingly been dominating this year. They aren't going to be crawling today, the 20 post hurts - this isn't Big Brown, and I simply just do not see it happening for this guy. Toss 'em!
- #17 Dublin - Ran terrible at CD twice previously. Hated his Arkansas Derby (G1). No excuse as to why he couldn't pass Line of David.
- Kind of hard to take credit for the likes of Backtalk should be 300/1, Dean's Kitten should be 200/1, Conveyence and Line of David are going to set the pace and stop, Noble's Promise isn't going to get the 1 1/4M being by Cuvee (he ran great by the way), and lastly, if it wasn't for the post position Lookin At Lucky would probably be my top pick.
- #10 Paddy O'Prado - He made a very nice run in the Derby. I hear many folks talk about the trouble he got into in early stretch, but I just don't see it. I think today is the day he gets exposed as a poly/turf horse. I'm just not a fan.
- #12 Dublin - My opinion has not changed since the Derby. If the Triple Crown doesn't finish him I think he can be a monster miler.
THE BELMONT - Grade 1
Belmont Park Race 11 - 6:32 ET
I'm going to provide my thoughts on each horse in the field by order of post position. I'll include their morning line (ML) odds, what I think is their fair value (FV), and what type of contender (Win, Exotics, Middle of the Road or Toss 'Em) I believe they are.
#1 Dave in Dixie (20/1 ML; 75/1 FV; Toss 'Em) - Hasn't shown much since winning his debut at Del Mar. Was 2nd to Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis to begin the year but Caracortado hasn't proven to be much since then himself. In his only try on dirt he finished 5th by 16 lengths. Hasn't raced in two months. Distance will likely be a problem. What's to like?
#2 Spangled Star (30/1; 100/1; Toss 'Em) - Comes out of what I believe is a key race. Unfortunately Dutrow entered him into the wrong race today. He should be running in the Woody Stephens (G2). Like Dave in Dixie he'll likely have a problem with the distance.
#3 Uptowncharlybrown (10/1; 30/1; Toss 'Em) - A lot has changed for this guy since he last raced seven weeks ago. He has a new trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and they are taking the blinkers off today. I think he has the right running style to possibly fill out a trifecta or superfecta, but I definitely see him tiring late. (Of course if you are playing the superfecta you should have ALL in the 4th spot anyway.) If we were going nine furlongs instead of 12 he'd be serious threat.
#4 Make Music for Me (10/1; 30/1; Middle of the Road) - Eventually you're going to have to run into a horse that can get the distance because someone has to win the race! Just not thinking this one can get it either. I think his close in the Derby was more an illusion than anything else. Aside from Ice Box everyone was backing up in the final 1/4 mile so he was "passing tired horses." Has been an improved horse since adding blinkers but that could have as much to do with being older. Would be a nice story to have the first female trainer to win a Triple Crown race, but I just don't see it happening. Close to a Toss 'Em horse for me.
#5 Fly Down (9/2; 8/1; Exotics) - Okay, the reason you're all here. First and foremost Fly Down is a very talented horse so don't get it twisted, but I am here to tell you why he is NOT going to win the 142nd Running of The Belmont. Upon reviewing his replays, if you see the same thing I do, you're going notice that this horse has to be ridden hard from start to finish. He is a lazy horse. If the jock stops rubbing he stops running. John Velazquez is as good as they come but he is not strong enough to ride this horse for 12 furlongs. No one is. Now for some good. Unlike the first four horses we looked at his pedigree says he can get the distance, he has a win over the track, and he has the aforementioned John Velazquez up. I just simply cannot get over the fact that I believe his previous races show the jocks have to stay so busy on him to keep him in the race, and doing that for 1 1/2 miles is impossible. Bottom line: I'm not completely throwing him out but I'm only going to use him underneath on a couple of exacta saver bets. Obviously he'll be in any tris or supers if I choose to play them.
Disagree? Then tell me about it. If need be, you can get to all of his available free replays here via Horse Racing Nation. The Fair Grounds race is very tough to see so ideally you have some type of replay service.
#6 Ice Box (3/1; 3/1; Exotics) - Definitely one of the most anticipated Belmont entrants in the history, if not the most anticipated. Obviously with that comes comes fists full of cash which is why I believe the morning line of 3/1 is ridiculous. I think he'll go postward some where in the neighborhood of 8/5 or 9/5. I mentioned earlier that this guy is the only one that was actually closing ground in the Derby and it's well documented how much trouble he had before he really got rolling. He's not going to get that fast pace up front like he did in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby where he showed that acceleration in the last 1/4 mile. I just don't really see this setting up for him to take the top spot. Clearly needs to be used in all exotics.
#7 Drosselmeyer (12/1; 25/1; Middle of the Road) - He's proven to be one paced throughout which actually could benefit him here going 12 furlongs hence the "Middle of the Road" designation instead of a "Toss 'Em." He's right on the fringe though. Like many we've looked at before him I just don't see him getting the distance. Gets an upgrade at jockey going from Desormeaux to Mike Smith. Has worked well since his 2nd place finish to Fly Down in the Grade 2 Dwyer here at Belmont Park.
#8 Game On Dude (10/1; 6/1; Win) - To start we have Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. Never a bad thing. He's by Awesome Again so I have no issues with the distance. He sits just off the early lead which I like in this race. May not have beaten much in the Lone Star Derby (G3) but he really showed me some promise while going second out for Baffert and adding the blinkers. He's worked very well since and appears to be peaking at the right time. I'm a fan.
#9 Stately Victor (15/1; 25/1; Middle of the Road) - Appears to be the wise guy horse. Many would probably give Fly Down that honor but if you really think about what a wise guy horse truly is Stately Victor is that horse. There are two reasons why I am not tossing him out completely 1) I mistakenly used him in the Derby so I'm not going to let him ruin my day today and 2) because he's definitely not distance challenged based on his pedigree. Other than that there's not really much to like. Actually I do like Alan Garcia. Very solid jock.
#10 Stay Put (20/1; 15/1; Exotics) - This is the first of two (Interactif) horses by Broken Vow in this year's Belmont. I prefer this guy over the other. He's proven on dirt and he's just as fast. He is always closing ground and appears to be the horse at the biggest price with the best chance to fill out the exotics.
#11 First Dude (7/2; 5/2; Win) - Comes in off the career best effort in the Preakness while giving the two year old champ Lookin At Lucky all he could handle through the stretch. I incorrectly dismissed him that day and I'm hoping I'm not too late to the party. Should relish the distance while taking advantage of a nice pace scenario. He's my pick to click.
#12 Interactif (12/1; 25/1; Toss 'Em) - Don't like him. He's trained by arguably the best trainer in the land, has a very good jock, should be able to go 1 1/2 miles... sounds like a horse I should like. Problem is I prefer others that are proven on dirt - his win going 5F at Monmouth the first week of July as a two year old against a bunch of firsters earning a 63 Beyer doesn't excite me. He hasn't raced in two months and now he's expected to be able to handle 12 furlongs? You can have him. I'll let him beat me. I don't care how well he's been working.
Now what? I seem to have a lot of horses eligible for some part of the prize. To help separate all of the candidates I'm going to put them into four tiers instead of three today. The fourth tier are the horses that are just on the edge of being tossed but for whatever reason I couldn't do it. I'll only use those for trifectas and superfectas unless I look up and see some nice exacta payoffs that would save the day if they were able to sneak up for second. That latter scenario is not likely though based on what the odds will probably be.
Here are my selections using the aforementioned tiered approach:
11-8 / 6 / 5-10 / (9-7-4)
