Saturday, January 21, 2006

Scoreboard... Scoreboard!

Think back to when you were 12 years old (or even in high school). You were playing ball with your closest buddies. You were winning the game. Your biggest rival was talking smack. All you had to say was one word, "scoreboard." You could say it softly or you could scream at the top of your lungs. It didn't matter because it meant the same thing either way. No matter what your rival said you had the biggest burn of all.

One thing that needs to be very clear is a handicapping contest is not the same as wagering on the races. You should never compare a contest player with someone who bets on the races. That's like comparing a card player with a craps player. They are playing two totally different games and it simply isn't fair.

One of the most important things a contest player can do is understand the entire picture. You can't just go in and select the best horse in every race because if you do you’re chances of winning are slim to none. Why? Well, that’s simple, you don’t understand the entire picture. You need to take into account every single aspect of the tournament and the score needs to be incorporated into your overall strategy. If you use it and others don’t than you have a huge edge over them. A scoreboard is one of the most important parts of the game! Without it you’ve just completely eliminated one of elements necessary to make sure the best contest player wins.

I've yet to hear one solid reason why a scoreboard shouldn't be used. Let's take a look at one example. The East Coast Player versus the West Coast Player. The argument is if a scoreboard is used the player making selections on east coast races is at a disadvantage to the player making selections on west coast races because the West Coast Player knows what number he/she needs to shoot for to win the tournament. The thing that is wrong with this argument is you're segmenting the rules of the contest i.e. you don’t understand the entire picture. You need to go into every contest with a game plan. If you're entering a contest that includes both east coast and west coast races than you need to take that into account while constructing your game plan. You can choose to play all east coast races because you have that right. If you understand the entire picture then you know you’ve given the West Coast Player a target and there’s nothing you can do about it. That’s probably not the best plan for this type of contest, but you are free to do what you want based on the rules. You definitely have nothing to complain about and I really can't feel sorry for you. If you have a problem with it than you’re just a whiner and/or you don’t understand the entire picture. You both played by the same rules so you about all you have is another "tough beat" story. Personally, I'd consider an alternative plan!

Based on the above example one thing I would like to see is in a contest that uses optional races the host needs to not only include a player’s score but also the number of plays they’ve used (or the number of plays they have remaining). If you're going to do it please do it right. All of this information can and should be used to determine exactly what you are going to do. This is yet another element that should be incorporated into your strategy, and if it’s available and you choose not to use it to your advantage than you don’t understand the entire picture. For example, you're late into the biggest tournament of the year, it's Win/Place, and you're down $18.00. The leader has one play left and you have three. What do you do? Well, you have a multitude of options. If you really like a 3-1 shot, and that’s not below you’re minimum odds, you should probably not be shy and take it. If you lose you still have two bullets left to make a mends. On the other hand, if you have one play remaining and the leader is finished, you know that no matter what you need to take a horse that is at least 6-1 (maybe 5-1, but that could be a bit murky) in order to guarantee a chance at victory.

Having said that if the last race of the contest has a five horse field (that would obviously be a west coast race) and the odds are 4-5, 2-1, 5-2, 4-1 and 35-1, you have to take the 35-1 bomb. No question! That's the only chance you have at winning. Now maybe your game plan reads you want to play for second place. In that case, you may want to look at some of the other options. In that example we're talking about the biggest tournament of the year. Change that example to a feeder contest where you need to finish in the Top 3 to qualify for that big tourney. Now you have another element to consider and you must consider it if you understand the entire picture. Do you want to try and guarantee yourself a Top 3 finish or do you want to go for the killshot and hope nobody passes you by? I've been there before. Two different times stand out the most. Once I was in fourth by 20 cents (needed to finish Top 4) and once I was in first by a couple dollars (needed to finish Top 5). Both times I went for the money and the win. The final standings were different each time but the ultimate results were the same. My horses lost but my 20 cent lead held up in one and I fell from first to third in the other. Fortunately, in both instances, I was still able qualify for the bigger tournament. Either way, win lose or draw I'm going for the win. That's just the way I roll and I wouldn't want it any other way. I never play scared.

In closing, obviously I feel scoreboards are a very important element of contests and they should be used at all times, and if you have an opinion please make sure that you understand the entire picture.

Related Links:
Handicapping Contest Handbook (Revised and Updated Edition)
By Noel Michaels