After returning home from NHC VI I received a call from a gentleman that worked in the marketing department of a major racing establishment. He asked if I would be interested in doing some freelance work, and despite no experience in the area I of course was very interested in taking part. So, I chose a topic and went right to work. Unfortunately the gentleman in question is no longer with the company and since I spent four or five hours on the project I figured I could at least share it here. Enjoy.
"Will the Pick 4 pay $100 or $10,000: Here's how to tell"
The Pick 4 offers horseplayers one of the best values in pari-mutuel wagering. This can be measured by comparing the $2 win parlay to the actual payout of the Pick 4. A perfect example of this can be shown in a recent sample of results at the Fair Grounds from January 1, 2005 to January 17, 2005. There were a total of 13 racing days in that time frame and every single day, yes all 13, the Pick 4 outperformed the $2 win parlay (by an average margin of $3.60 to $1.00). To put that into perspective if we added the payouts of all 13 Pick 4’s we’d have a total of $86,378.00 while the $2 win parlay would have totaled just $23,983.62. In a word… INCREDIBLE!
So, you’ve handicapped the races. You’ve created your ticket. Now the question begs to be answered… Will the Pick 4 pay $100 or $10,000? Here’s how to tell.
Typically the Pick 4 is available on the last four races on the card so staying with the Fair Grounds, where they usually run 10 races each day, we will use Races 7-10 for our example.
Our hypothetical Pick 4 will have the following horse numbers in each respective race: Race 7 - #1, Race 8 - #’s 2 & 3, Race 9 - #’s 4 & 5, and Race 10 - #’s 6, 7 & 8. Our ticket will then look like this: 1/2,3/4,5/6,7,8. For $1 our total investment is $12. We know this by multiplying the number of horses in each race by the amount of our bet (1x2x2x3 = 12x$1 = $12).
After creating our ticket the first thing we need to do is get the morning line for each horse we’ve decided to use. Once we have the morning line we then need to calculate what each horse would pay to win on a $2 bet. The table below shows our morning lines and $2 win payouts for each horse in our Pick 4 sequence.
| Race |
Horse |
ML |
$2 Win Payout |
| 7 |
#1 |
3-1 |
$8.00 |
| 8 |
#2 |
5-2 |
$7.00 |
| 8 |
#3 |
5-1 |
$12.00 |
| 9 |
#4 |
4-1 |
$10.00 |
| 9 |
#5 |
10-1 |
$22.00 |
| 10 |
#6 |
6-1 |
$14.00 |
| 10 |
#7 |
4-1 |
$10.00 |
| 10 |
#8 |
8-5 |
$5.20 |
Now here comes the fun part or the scary part if mathematics isn’t your friend. Stick with this though because it is a fairly simple process. After trying it a few times you’ll become a professional.
Step 1 – Take the $2 win payout of Horse #1 in Race 7 and divide it by two. That gives us 4 ($8/2 = $4).
Step 2 – Multiply that number by the $2 win payout of Horse #2 in Race 8. We now are at 28 ($4x$7 = $28).
Step 3 – Divide that number by two and multiply it by the $2 win payout of Horse #4 in Race 9. We are now up to 140 ($28/2 = $14x$10 = $140).
Step 4 – Repeat Step 3 with Horse #6 from Race 10 ($140/2 = $70x$14 = $980). At this point we have our $2 Pick 4 probable payout of $980.
Step 5 – Finally we divide our $2 payout by two to come up with our $1 Pick 4 probable payout of $490 ($980/2 = $490).
The keyword here is “probable” as we are trying to calculate our best guess as to what the Pick 4 will or “should” pay. Now we just need to repeat the above steps for each of the possible combinations.
For our example, we would have a total of 12 probable payouts, because there are 12 possible combinations. They are as follows:
| Combination |
$1 Probable Payout |
| 1-2-4-6 |
$490.00 (above example) |
| 1-2-4-7 |
$350.00 |
| 1-2-4-8 |
$182.00 |
| 1-2-5-6 |
$1,078.00 |
| 1-2-5-7 |
$770.00 |
| 1-2-5-8 |
$400.40 |
| 1-3-4-6 |
$840.00 |
| 1-3-4-7 |
$600.00 |
| 1-3-4-8 |
$312.00 |
| 1-3-5-6 |
$1,848.00 |
| 1-3-5-7 |
$1,320.00 |
| 1-3-5-8 |
$686.40 |
So, why is computing probable Pick 4 payouts important? Well, an investment in a Pick 4 ticket rarely costs as little as $12 as in the example illustrated above. If you're investing in a larger ticket using multiple horses per race (Example: 3x5x4x6x$1 = $360), you'll need to know that your eventual winning ticket will return more (or much more) than the cost of your original investment. Who wants to invest $360 only to win and collect $200?
Fair Grounds Pick 4
Payouts at a Glance |
2004-2005 Meet
(11/25/04-01/24/2005) |
| # of Pick 4's |
39 |
| # of Overlays |
35 |
| # of Underlays |
4 |
| % of Overlays |
89.7% |
| Avg. $2 Pick 4 |
$4,537.00 |
| Avg. $2 Parlay |
$2,120.70 |
| $2 Pick 4 to $2 Parlay Ratio |
$2.14 to $1.00 |
Hot Tip:
This same exercise can be used to calculate probable payouts for Pick 3’s.
