The Preakness... who ya got?

THE PREAKNESS - Grade 1
Pimlico Race 12 - 6:18 ET

Let's get right down to it. I'm going to provide my thoughts on each horse in the field by order of preference. I'll also include their morning line odds (ML) along with, what I think is, their fair value (FV).

Win Contenders

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#8 Super Saver (5/2 ML; 8/5 FV) - I liked everything about him in the Derby except for his odds so I'm not jumping off now. He's clearly the one to beat. As the week has progressed it's become more and more apparent that this race is Super Saver's to lose. He reportedly worked three furlongs on May 10th breezing in 36 3/5. I say "reportedly" because I watched the footage (you can see it here) and it didn't look like he was doing anything more than trotting. Your winner.

#7 Lookin At Lucky (3/1; 5/2) - He has the best chance to spoil the Kentucky Derby winner's party. Will he find trouble again? There was an interesting conversation on At the Races with Steve Byk on Wednesday (end of hour two) with Randy Moss. They were talking about how some horses just tend to find trouble and Lookin At Lucky just may be that horse. Interestingly enough, despite Moss championing that discussion, his top pick is Lookin At Lucky. I would feel a little more comfortable if Gomez stayed aboard but Garcia is more than capable. Just not sure how he'll react on the biggest stage he's encountered. When I think about Lookin At Lucky I always think of his run in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park. Tough not to think he can nip Super Saver at the wire.

Exotics Contenders

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#2 Schoolyard Dreams (15/1; 10/1) - I'm listing this guy officially as an exotics contender, but if neither of the top two win this is the only horse I see that can. I don't know what happened in the Wood Memorial (G1), but I hear he was sick. His two previous races at Tampa Bay Downs make him a very strong win contender here. He's been working lights out, and shouldn't have any problem with the distance being by Stephen Got Even. He'll be the reason I win or don't win today. I'm tempted to flip-flop him and 'Lucky, but I keep thinking Wood vs. Rebel.

#9 Caracortado (10/1; 15/1) - I don't really know what to think of him. I guess it's fair to say he's worked well and has every chance to hit the board so he deserves to be an exotics contender. He's won on dirt but it was at four furlongs, against $40,000 maiden claimers, and at Fairplex.

Middle of the Road Contenders

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#10 Paddy O'Prado (9/2; 15/1) - He made a very nice run in the Derby. I hear many folks talk about the trouble he got into in early stretch, but I just don't see it. I think today is the day he gets exposed as a poly/turf horse. I'm just not a fan. If he does run well today I will have to change my mind on him because he hasn't really done much wrong. You would then be able to say he's a poly/turf/dirt horse which would be very impressive.

#4 Northern Giant (30/1; 30/1) - I liked him at 53/1 in the Grade 2 Risen Star where he finished third. I just wish he would have shown some life in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Toss 'Em Contenders

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#1 Aikenite (20/1; 30/1) - I liked his middle move in the Derby Trial (G3) but he flattened out pretty good late in the stretch. I would have liked to see him run on. He needs to stick to one-turn for now at least.
#12 Dublin (10/1; 35/1) - My opinion has not changed since the Derby. If the Triple Crown doesn't finish him I think he can be a monster miler.
#9 Pleasant Prince (20/1; 35/1) - They've been chasing since the second place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. The road ends here.
#5 Yawanna Twist (30/1; 40/1) - Distance limitations.
#6 Jackson Bend (12/1; 50/1) - I find it laughable that some are actually picking this guy to win. I'd rather lose.
#11 First Dude (20/1; 50/1) - No chance. I see Fly Down beat him twice and he's already the talk of the Belmont Stakes (G1). I just don't see it happening for this guy.

Here are my selections using the tiered approach:
8-7 / 2-9 / 10-4