Over and above that if a horse such as Declan's Moon is scratched while the current pool is still open why shouldn't that money be refunded? There was $5,564 wagered in Pool 2 before he was scratched. Is it really fair that Churchill gets all of that money too? After all the pool hasn't closed yet.
If you keep saying to yourself, "well, that's how a future wager works." I say to you, "this is not a true future wager." This is like betting on a regular race one, two or three months before it is run because there is a takeout. If there wasn't a takeout and you were guaranteed the price posted when you placed the wager, like a true future wager, then none of these questions would have to be asked.
One of two things needs to happen. There should either be no takeout or wagers on all horses that do not run in the race should be refunded and prices should be adjusted accordingly.
The following table is a comparison of $2 Win Payouts with the 16% takeout versus the $2 Win Payouts with no takeout for Pool 1, which was held February 10-13.
| Horse | $2 Win Payoff With 16% Takeout |
$2 Win Payoff With No Takeout |
|---|---|---|
| Afleet Alex | $33.20 | $39.40 |
| Bandini | $42.60 | $50.80 |
| Closing Argument | $108.20 | $128.80 |
| Consolidator | $66.20 | $78.80 |
| Declan's Moon | $21.40 | $25.60 |
| Galloping Grocer | $80.60 | $96.00 |
| Giacomo | $52.00 | $62.00 |
| Going Wild | $58.40 | $69.60 |
| Greater Good | $81.40 | $97.00 |
| Harlington | $41.60 | $49.60 |
| High Fly | $59.40 | $70.60 |
| High Limit | $61.00 | $72.80 |
| Lost In The Fog | $45.80 | $54.60 |
| Proud Accolade | $73.20 | $87.20 |
| Rockport Harbor | $28.60 | $34.00 |
| Roman Ruler | $39.00 | $46.60 |
| Rush Bay | $133.80 | $159.40 |
| Spanish Chestnut | $81.60 | $97.20 |
| Storm Surge | $145.60 | $173.20 |
| Sun King | $40.80 | $48.60 |
| Sweet Catomine | $45.60 | $54.20 |
| Texcess | $169.40 | $201.60 |
| Wilko | $49.40 | $58.80 |
| All Others | $6.20 | $7.40 |
Again, looking at Pool 1, the next table shows what the $2 Win Payouts would be if refunds were offered on horses that do not run in the Derby. At this time we do know that some of the horses that were offered will not be running, and there certainly could be other defections over the next month. For this exercise we'll focus on what we do know.
| Horse | $2 Win Payoff With No Refunds |
$2 Win Payoff With Refunds |
|---|---|---|
| Afleet Alex | $33.20 | $31.60 |
| Bandini | $42.60 | $40.60 |
| Closing Argument | $108.20 | $103.20 |
| Consolidator | $66.20 | $63.20 |
| Declan's Moon | $21.40 | SCR |
| Galloping Grocer | $80.60 | $77.00 |
| Giacomo | $52.00 | $49.60 |
| Going Wild | $58.40 | $55.80 |
| Greater Good | $81.40 | $77.80 |
| Harlington | $41.60 | SCR |
| High Fly | $59.40 | $56.60 |
| High Limit | $61.00 | $58.40 |
| Lost In The Fog | $45.80 | SCR |
| Proud Accolade | $73.20 | $70.00 |
| Rockport Harbor | $28.60 | $27.20 |
| Roman Ruler | $39.00 | SCR |
| Rush Bay | $133.80 | $127.80 |
| Spanish Chestnut | $81.60 | $78.00 |
| Storm Surge | $145.60 | $139.00 |
| Sun King | $40.80 | $39.00 |
| Sweet Catomine | $45.60 | $43.60 |
| Texcess | $169.40 | $161.80 |
| Wilko | $49.40 | $47.20 |
| All Others | $6.20 | $6.00 |
So, needless to say I haven't and will not be participating in any Mutuel Pool Future Wagers because as I understand it I don't think it's fair. Maybe I'm wrong about everything. Maybe someone can educate me to help me understand. Or maybe I'm right and before you put your hard earned money into the next Kentucky Derby (or Oaks) Future Pool you'll ask yourself the same questions I ask myself and decide it isn't fair. I don't know.
Related Links:
Kentucky Derby Future Wager
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