So, I decided to dig a little deeper. What I've done below is provided a chart of the current win odds and matched those up with the "odds" for each horse using the Kentucky Oaks-Kentucky Derby Daily Double will pays. I think this clearly illustrates how out of tune the current odds truly are. I'm not sure they will be able to fully adjust themselves throughout the day tomorrow, but we'll see. The odds are what the odds are and they will be what they will be. However, I believe the odds listed below using the Oaks-Derby Daily Double will pays are much more like what the odds should be.
Here is a quick explanation of the information within the chart:
PP - Post Position
Horse - the name of the horse (I know)
Current Odds - as of 9:04pm, $548,644
Rank - the horses rank based on those current odds
$2DD Will Pay - amount the Oaks-Derby Daily Double will pay if that horse wins the Derby
Derby Odds - what the horses odds should be based on the will pay of the Oaks-Derby Daily Double
Rank - the horses rank based on "Derby Odds" (according to Oaks-Derby Daily Double will pays)
Pts Diff - the difference in "points" (odds) for the Derby Odds vs the Current Odds (Example: Lookin At Lucky should be 4/1 but currently he is 9/1 so his Pts Diff is +5 - i.e. you're getting 5 points better than you should be.)
| PP | Horse | Current Odds | Rank | $2DD Will Pay | Derby Odds | Rank | Pts Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lookin At Lucky | 9/1 | 2nd | $22 | 4/1 | 1st | +5 |
| 2 | Ice Box | 11/1 | 4th | $58 | 12/1 | 5th | -1 |
| 3 | Noble's Promise | 21/1 | 14th | $96 | 20/1 | 8th | +1 |
| 4 | Super Saver | 7/1 | 1st | $56 | 11/1 | 4th | -4 |
| 5 | Line of David | 15/1 | 8th | $150 | 32/1 | 15th | -17 |
| 6 | Stately Victor | 15/1 | 8th | $86 | 18/1 | 7th | -3 |
| 7 | American Lion | 25/1 | 17th | $136 | 29/1 | 14th | -4 |
| 8 | Dean's Kitten | 18/1 | 11th | $234 | 50/1 | 16th | -32 |
| 9 | Make Music for Me | 25/1 | 17th | $278 | 59/1 | 19th | -34 |
| 10 | Paddy O'Prado | 11/1 | 4th | $106 | 22/1 | 10th | -11 |
| 11 | Devil May Care | 10/1 | 3rd | $66 | 13/1 | 6th | -3 |
| 12 | Conveyance | 25/1 | 17th | $118 | 25/1 | 12th | 0 |
| 13 | Jackson Bend | 22/1 | 15th | $122 | 26/1 | 13th | -4 |
| 14 | Mission Impazible | 24/1 | 16th | $102 | 21/1 | 9th | +3 |
| 15 | Discreetly Mine | 41/1 | 20th | $240 | 51/1 | 17th | -10 |
| 16 | Awesome Act | 15/1 | 7th | $38 | 7/1 | 2nd | +6 |
| 17 | Dublin | 20/1 | 12th | $108 | 23/1 | 11th | -3 |
| 18 | Backtalk | 20/1 | 12th | $250 | 53/1 | 18th | -33 |
| 19 | Homeboykris | 17/1 | 10th | $308 | 66/1 | 20th | -49 |
| 20 | Sidney's Candy | 11/1 | 4th | $46 | 9/1 | 3rd | +2 |
What does all of this mean? Well, I think you need to search for value in the win pool. Clearly, at this time, you should NOT place win bets on Homeboykris (-49), Make Music for Me (-34), Backtalk (-33), Dean's Kitten (-32), Line of David (-17), and Paddy O'Prado (-11). Of course, these are subject to change but right now if you like any of the above you must look for value in the exotics!
Some may ask what about Discreetly Mine at -10? Paddy O'Prado is -11 and you're saying he's a bad bet. It's all relative. When you are -10 at 41/1 instead of 51/1 the disparity isn't that great. When you are 11/1 and should be 22/1 like Paddy O'Prado your price has been cut in half! Never a crowd pleasure.
The flip side of that is Lookin At Lucky who has a +5, which comparatively speaking is a low differential when you look at -32 or -49, but that +5 represents a price that is more than doubled from what should be 4/1 to what currently is 9/1. Another horse with great value right now is Awesome Act at +6 which is quite surprising as he seemed to be the horse most Eskendreya fans were gravitating toward.
No comments:
Post a Comment