Kentucky Oaks 136... who ya got?

The 136th Running of THE KENTUCKY OAKS
Churchill Downs
April 30, 2010
Race 11 - 5:45 ET

First off, if the rain hits and renders the track muddy or sloppy I'll become a spectator. Aside from that, I guess the question is can you beat her? Her as in #5 Blind Luck. If you're going to beat her I think today is the day to do it. She comes off the huge effort in the Grade 2 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park in her first race on the dirt since her debut (in a $40,000 maiden claimer no less). If you believe in the bounce theory now is the time to take a shot.

I believe the horse with the best opportunity at the upset is #6 Beautician. She goes third off the layoff and returns to (obviously) her preferred surface. Kenny McPeek will need to get his head examined if he ever puts her on "polycrap" again. Two back in the Grade 3 Honeybee she was stuck down on the rail in early stretch and by the time she moved out No Such Word was long gone. Beautician will get the jump on Blind Luck today so the next question is can she stave off that furious closing kick? At 8/1 I'll say yes.

If #12 Ailalea can get in a good early position she looks very dangerous to me. She broke a step slow in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and then Castellano appeared to rush her up into contention. That move was rewarded with a 4-wide trip the entire way until she finally got tired entering the stretch. She should have no problem with the distance, she adds blinkers and makes her third start of the year. Looks like she's setup for a breakout performance.

On paper I like #8 Tidal Pool but after listening to At the Races on Wednesday I'm all but throwing her out. I will place a small saver bet in case the "talk" was misguided.

I don't see anyone else taking all of the money although there are plenty of candidates to fill out the remaining spots in the exotics.

Horses I do not like include: #1 It's Tea Time (dirt?), #4 Age of Humor (slow), #9 Bella Diamante (slow), #13 Amen Hallelujah (9F?) and #14 Joanie's Catch (slow).

Here are my selections using the tiered approach:
6 / 5-12 / 3-10-8